ADAMHAWKINS83

The Sharpe Ratio - Adapting Investing to betting How do most people analyze an upcoming game? They look at the box score. They see wins and losses, points per game, a pitcher’s ERA, a quarterback’s passing yards. This data is important, but it’s just the surface. It’s what everyone sees.…

The Sharpe Ratio - Adapting Investing to betting Imagine two bettors, Alex and Ben, who both start the season with a $1,000 bankroll and end with an impressive $1,500 profit. On paper, they had equal success. But their journeys were wildly different. Alex’s bankroll grew steadily, with small, manageable ups…

Understanding Monte Carlo Simulation Every sports bettor knows the feeling: the exhilarating high of a long winning streak and the gut-wrenching low of a losing run. This rollercoaster of results is called variance, and it's the single biggest reason people abandon a perfectly good strategy. How can you possibly trust…

A Methodological Deep Dive into the Prediction Engine's Architecture The prediction of sporting event outcomes is an exceptionally challenging domain. Unlike more sterile, predictable systems, sports are characterized by a high degree of randomness, a vast number of interacting variables, and constantly evolving team and player dynamics. A simplistic model,…

The Metric That Powers Our Predictions: Understanding ROC AUC How do you really know if a sports prediction model is any good? Most people think of simple accuracy—the percentage of games it called correctly. But what if we told you that accuracy can be dangerously misleading? A model that just…